Origin Story

 

Almanis by Dysrupt Labs is a forecasting platform that currently has input to over GBP 5 Trillion in assets under management (AUM). The company was founded in 2008 by Karl and Steve, two international bankers who were inspired by the 2008 financial crisis to create a better way to predict events and generate alpha, specifically by using private markets and changing prices to communicate information.

In the years that followed, the Dysrupt team (the parent company of Almanis) met many clever and interesting people who were also focused on finding something earlier and more reliable than a group forecast. This meant they inevitably became interested in prediction markets and worked with Robin Hanson at George Mason University, as well as the IARPA ACE project, from which Phillip Tetlock wrote the book "Superforecasters".

The Dysrupt team has invested more than 250,000 hours over 14 years in the development of the Almanis platform, which incorporates a commercial release of its human-machine hybrid anthropogenic AI. This AI has been independently scientifically validated as enhancing expert forecasters' performance in the DARPA-funded NG2S program, and Dysrupt Labs has also had Covid-related breakthroughs in identifying "wisdom IN crowds", which have been covered in several scientific publications.

The Almanis team continues to work on improving world best practice forecasting with collective intelligence. They believe that expert groups can win with better tools for making their forecasts.