Expert groups
are making better forecasts by knowing who to listen to when.
Dysrupt Labs is a private company that specialises in forecasting technologies that use collective intelligence, machine learning and AI.
If you are already forecasting on important variables and understand the value of better forecasts then unlock alpha and better manage uncertainty with Dysrupt Labs.
“Who do I listen to, and when?”
Dysrupt Labs solves that essential forecasting problem.
Almanis by Dysrupt Labs mirrors collective intelligence in nature, where the swarm or herd discriminates between important information versus noise.
"Wisdom of crowds" is the stampede or group consensus.
"Wisdom in crowds" is the first zebra and Almanis human-machine hybrid forecasts.
We are …
Dysrupt Labs, a private company driving advanced forecasting methods since 2008.
Experienced quants established it to improve forecasting risk and geopolitics, using basic and applied research, on their Almanis forecasting platform, in field experiments lasting from 8 hours to 8 years, for G7/G20 governments and commercial and academic institutions.
Dysrupt Labs is based in Melbourne, Australia, with its research partners, The Florey Institute of Neuroscience & Mental Health and The University of Melbourne - Brain, Mind & Markets Laboratory.
An Almanis group consensus is superior
Almanis performance is verified
on out-of-sample datasets from the DARPA Next Generation Social Science program (NG2S).
3 ways expert groups are using Almanis
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A cloud platform for your experts.
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Forecasts from our global panel of experts.
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Our Substack newsletters on corporate, geopolitical, macroeconomic, public health, and other variables.
Become
a forecaster on Almanis
Challenge yourself, and earn financial rewards for performance.
The team, forecasters & research partners are …
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Principal Investigator, Professor Anne-Louise Ponsonby [University of Melbourne]
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Principal Investigator, Professor Peter Bossaerts [Cambridge University]
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Dysrupt Labs and Almanis are supported by a remarkable global community of 800 proven forecasters and several thousand enthusiastic amateurs. Dysrupt Labs' core skills include the ability to select forecasters based on their long-term performance potential.
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Karl is the founding partner of Dysrupt Labs. He has lived, worked and been educated in Australia, Asia and the USA. Karl is a banker, accountant and economist with an MBA from Columbia University. During his 25-year career as a banker, he developed significant expertise in quantitative and judgement-based risk assessment.
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Kelly is the lead curator. Educated at the Australian National University, Kelly is an economist and political scientist. She has worked as a researcher in government relations and public policy. Kelly specialises in political theory and applied economics.
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Frederik is the research lead. He has a Bachelor of Science in Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering with a Minor in Economics from Purdue University. He has previously interned at FlexiMarkets and the Swiss Plasma Center at EPFL. His research interests are in the mechanics of price formation in prediction markets and the detection of expert traders.
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Ian runs ops and finance. He is a chartered accountant with honours in Economics from the Australian National University. He has lived in Australia, China, Japan and the USA. He has previously been the CFO of an Australian listed public technology company, an Australian Federal Government Agency, and an Australian cyber-security company COO. Ian’s area of expertise is real options analysis.
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Stephen has lived and worked in China, the UK and the USA for over 35 years. He began his career with the US-China Business Council in Washington D.C. and Beijing. He serves as a non-executive director on various listed and private companies and is also a trustee on the board of Princeton-in-Asia. Steve holds an MBA from Columbia University, an M.A. in International Affairs from Johns Hopkins SAIS, and a B.A. in East Asian Studies from Princeton University. Steve’s specialty at Dysrupt Labs is geopolitical risk.
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Chad has a PhD in Theoretical Physics and has been working in object-oriented software design and development for 26 years. Chad was part of the first OO team in Australia and has worked with most OO languages. Chad has worked in various industries, from manufacturing through government to banking and finance. Chad is an expert in financial software design and build.
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Torquil is an analyst and software designer with honours qualifications in mathematics and actuarial science. He has worked extensively in quantitative finance, operations research, data analytics and software development, with particular experience in object-oriented design. Torquil’s specialisations at Dysrupt Labs include combinatorial design.
Contact us
Contact details
We are in Melbourne, Australia.
Team members are based in Cambridge, Chicago, Geneva, London, Melbourne, and New York.
Dysrupt Labs @ SlowVoice
Level 4, 90 William Street,
Melbourne, Victoria, 3000.
Australia
Media
Almanis media coverage has included The Economist and Forbes for its combination of machine learning and human forecasting.
Alt-data
Almanis is a data provider listed on the Neudata alternative data intelligence platform.